'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to Trump's war with Iran
0 / 21
English
中文
Investment banking giant JP Morgan has said it is struggling to predict how oil prices will be impacted by the US-Iran war, telling investors in a rare note that "we simply don't know how to model the endgame".
投资银行巨头摩根大通表示，它正在努力预测美伊战争将如何影响油价，并在一份罕见的报告中告诉投资者“我们根本不知道如何模拟最终结果”。
The bank said it assumed at the start of the conflict that there would be "economic red lines" that the Trump administration would be unwilling the cross, and therefore it believed a deal would have been struck to open up the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane back in June.
该银行表示，在冲突开始时，它就假设特朗普政府不会愿意跨越“经济红线”，因此它相信早在六月份就会达成开放霍尔木兹海峡航道的协议。
It said such red lines included oil prices rising above $100 a barrel, inflation reaching 4%, gasoline topping $5 a gallon and rates on 10-year government borrowing hitting 5%.
报告称，这些红线包括油价升至每桶100美元以上、通胀率达到4%、汽油突破每加仑5美元以及10年期政府借款利率达到5%。
JP Morgan is a huge name in the financial world, so for the investment bank to admit its experts are grappling with working out the economic impact of the US-Iran conflict reflects the tricky nature of trying to predict President Donald Trump's next moves.
摩根大通在金融界享有盛誉，因此该投行承认其专家正在努力研究美伊冲突的经济影响，这反映出试图预测唐纳德·特朗普总统下一步行动的棘手本质。
An oil and gas industry source told the BBC it was "unusual" for such a high-profile investment firm to issue such a note, but added it was a "reflection on the state of play", given the uncertainties around the conflict.
一位石油和天然气行业消息人士告诉英国广播公司，如此高调的投资公司发布这样的声明是“不寻常的”，但他补充说，考虑到冲突的不确定性，这是“对事态的反映”。
Investors often make investment decisions on inflation expectations and the price of oil is a major factor in prices rising across the world, given the commodity's widespread use and humanity's dependence on it.
投资者经常根据通胀预期做出投资决定，鉴于石油的广泛使用和人类对石油的依赖，石油价格是全球物价上涨的主要因素。
While gasoline remains below $5 and inflation has also not reached 4%, oil prices have surged back above $100 in recent weeks and the interest rate - known as a yield - on government bonds, which are issued in order for the US to borrow money from financial markets, has ticked over 5%.
虽然汽油价格仍低于 5 美元，通货膨胀率也未达到 4%，但最近几周油价已回升至 100 美元以上，而政府债券的利率（即收益率）已超过 5%，而政府债券是为美国从金融市场借钱而发行的。
"Six months later [since the war began], many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more," said the commodities research team at JP Morgan in note.
摩根大通大宗商品研究团队在报告中表示：“[自战争开始以来]六个月后，许多界限已经被跨越，但退出策略不太明确，而不是更加明确。”
"For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view. We simply don't know how to model the endgame."
“自伊朗冲突爆发以来，这是我们第一次没有底线观点。 我们根本不知道如何对残局进行建模。”
How Trump and the oil markets move in sync: A tango in five charts US borrowing costs hit fresh highs over inflation fears US President Donald Trump said last week he did not think the Iran war would end until after November's midterm elections in the US.
特朗普和石油市场如何同步变化：五张图表中的探戈 由于通胀担忧，美国借贷成本再创新高 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周表示，他认为伊朗战争要到美国 11 月中期选举之后才会结束。
"Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward," Trump told reporters last week.
“大选结束后，油价将暴跌，”特朗普上周对记者表示。
"I think it's going to take a little bit longer than the midterm."
“我认为这会比中期选举需要更长的时间。”
High oil prices have been behind the rising cost of living in the US and around the world, with fuel and energy prices surging ahead of the colder months. The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, raised interest rates this week for the first time in more than three years and signaled they could be increased further this year and into 2027 in an effort to slow rising prices.
高油价一直是美国和世界各地生活成本上涨的原因，燃料和能源价格在寒冷的月份之前飙升。 美国央行美联储本周首次加息，这是三年多来的首次，并暗示今年和 2027 年可能进一步加息，以减缓物价上涨。
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the move was because "inflation is too high and has been for too long", though Trump disagreed with the decision.
美联储主席凯文·沃什表示，此举是因为“通胀过高且持续时间太长”，但特朗普不同意这一决定。
In JP Morgan's note, analysts said it estimated the "fair value" for oil in September would be around $90 a barrel, despite it trading above $100.
在摩根大通的报告中，分析师表示，预计 9 月份石油的“公允价值”将在每桶 90 美元左右，尽管其交易价格高于 100 美元。
But it said "the market is pricing in the risk" of more disruption to trade.
但它表示，“市场正在消化更多贸易中断的风险”。
Analysts cited further risks to oil supply in the Middle East, with Yemen's Houthis, which are backed by Iran, seizing an area at the mouth of the waterway in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is another key international shipping route.
分析人士指出，中东石油供应面临进一步风险，伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装占领了曼德海峡水道口的一块地区，该海峡是另一条重要的国际航运路线。
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine also continues to have an impact.
俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的冲突也持续产生影响。
Analysts said with "no clear signals" of the war de-escalating, the assumption that global oil supply disruption was temporary is "becoming increasingly difficult to sustain".
分析师表示，由于“没有明确信号”表明战争正在降温，全球石油供应中断只是暂时的假设“变得越来越难以维持”。
仅供学习使用，如有侵权请联系删除 · 查看原文