US midterms: 4 days to go – What the polls say as Trump cancels two rallies
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With four days to go before the United States midterm elections, Democrats are leading in national polls as both parties make their final push for votes.
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Meanwhile, a legal dispute threatens to delay the Senate result in Alaska, and President Donald Trump has cancelled two weekend rallies in favour of campaigning by phone.
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Democrats lead Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, according to RealClearPolling, with a difference of 8.2 percentage points.
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Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll in the US, said Trump’s declining approval ratings and economic concerns are alarming Republicans.
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The latest Marquette Law School poll, conducted in Wisconsin from October 14 to October 22 and released on October 28, put Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent and disapproval at 61 percent.
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Only 16 percent of respondents said they were better off financially than a year ago, while 42 percent said they were worse off and another 42 percent said things were about the same.
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“Democrats are more enthusiastic and more certain they will vote,” Franklin told Al Jazeera.
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“That is giving Democrats an important edge, and reflects Republican disappointment in current national conditions,” he added.
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In Arizona, where voters are experiencing increasing living expenses, a retiree told Al Jazeera that the cost of groceries had become a major concern.
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“We’re retired, and every time we go to the grocery store, it makes me wonder what the heck is going on,” the voter said.
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In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is polling at 49 percent against Republican Ken Paxton’s 43 percent, according to a CNN survey released on Thursday. In Michigan, the same pollster found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers, 49 percent to 42 percent.
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However, Franklin warned: “Polls are not perfect predictions of outcomes.
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“We could see those close races go either way, either due to polling errors or due to voters moving just a little more in one direction or the other.” In Alaska, however, there is also a complication: a legal dispute that could delay the result of a Senate race.
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The battle for Alaska’s seat could continue in court after ballots close on November 3.
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The dispute centres on two candidates named Dan Sullivan: the incumbent Republican senator and an independent candidate with the same name, who is also registered as a Republican. Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent candidate to confuse voters and take support away from the Republican senator.
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“It was a scheme.
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It was an election fraud. Total election fraud,” Trump said. The Justice Department has taken legal action over the dispute, while Democrat Mary Peltola denied the accusations.
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“I feel like this is yet another diversion from the issue that Alaskans want to talk about, which is affordability,” she said.
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Al Jazeera’s US correspondent Alan Fisher said the dispute could have consequences beyond Alaska if the Senate’s control depends on the result.
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“If this becomes the key seat in the battle for the Senate, we might not actually know who has control there for several days, maybe even weeks after November 3,” Fisher said.
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Trump travelled to South Carolina to campaign for Republican senator Darline Graham – sister of the late Lindsey Graham – who is running against Annie Andrews in a closely contested race.
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In Rock Hill, Trump encouraged voters to cast their ballots and cautioned his supporters not to take the election outcome for granted.
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About Graham, Trump said that she was in the lead but that he still had to campaign there. “In politics you never know, right? So you got to get out and vote.” He also addressed his supporters directly and asked the crowd to pretend that he was on the ballot. “And I am on the ballot because all of these things that we’ve done, all of these incredible successes that we have,” he added.
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In Texas, Vice President JD Vance attended a rally in Weatherford, near Dallas, alongside Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, as Republicans called on supporters to vote.
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“Texas ain’t surrendering.
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Texas is not becoming California.
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It’s going to stay Texas, ain’t that right?” Vance told supporters. Well-known Democrats have also joined the campaign trail. On Wednesday, former President Barack Obama gave a speech in Georgia supporting Senator Jon Ossoff, criticising Trump’s management of the economy and his approach to the war with Iran.
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When Al Jazeera asked about Obama’s visit, Ossoff’s Republican opponent, Mike Collins, said it showed “the desperation of Jon Ossoff because he knows he’s losing”.
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“If he was winning so big, he wouldn’t have brought anybody in,” Collins said.
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Democrats also campaigned in Texas and Georgia on Thursday.
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In Dallas, Senate candidate James Talarico held a rally as part of his final campaign tour, while former Vice President Kamala Harris joined Ossoff at Clark Atlanta University, urging young people to vote.
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Harris also campaigned in Macon, Georgia, where she criticised the Trump administration over rising living costs.
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“We have a moment now to turn pain into purpose,” Harris told Democratic volunteers.
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Harris also urged supporters to participate in local and statewide contests.
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Later, at Clark Atlanta University, she asked students to stay engaged. “Don’t overlook those races, because those are the folks who make decisions about your life every day,” she said.
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Trump has cancelled weekend scheduled appearances in Kansas and Iowa, replacing them with telephone rallies across nearly 20 states in the final days before Tuesday’s elections.
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Trump had been set to appear in Salina, Kansas, on Saturday and Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday.
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Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said the change would allow Trump to reach more voters than he could with in-person appearances.
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“Voters across the country want to hear from President Trump before Election Day, and this 72-hour sprint will be a huge boost in the closing days,” Gruters said.
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Asked about the cancellations on Thursday, Trump questioned the need to travel to Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall is facing Democrat Adam Hamilton.
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“I don’t feel I have to go to Kansas,” Trump said.
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When a Reuters reporter asked whether the decision had anything to do with fatigue from travelling, Trump rejected the suggestion.
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“I feel perfect,” he said, before insulting the reporter.
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Trump is still scheduled to hold a rally at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday at 23:00 GMT. At the same time, Harris is due to address the Fulton County Democratic Party’s Fulton Forward dinner in Atlanta, Georgia.
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Vance had also planned a news conference with the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud in St Cloud, Minnesota, on Friday, but the visit was cancelled on Thursday.
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No reason was immediately given.
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