US inflation rises more than expected - here's what is happening with prices
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US inflation rose by more than expected in the year to September, according to official figures, in the final data release before the midterm elections next month.
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The pace of price rises increased to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in the 12 months to August.
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Inflation was above forecasts, driven by higher petrol prices, which have risen following disruption to Middle East energy supplies due to the US-Israel conflict with Iran.
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The elections are being fought over cost-of-living pressures across the US.
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Inflation is the rate at which the price of products or services increases over time.
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For example, if a bottle of milk costs $1 but rises to $1.10 a year later, then annual inflation for bottled milk is 10%.
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Officials from the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure inflation through the consumer price index (CPI).
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It tracks the price changes of hundreds of day-to-day items including fresh food, gasoline and medical services to work out the overall level of inflation in the US economy.
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The bureau updates this so-called basket of goods over time as peoples' spending and lifestyle habits change.
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There are several factors that can cause inflation to rise.
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If demand for a product outstrips its supply, that can lead to producers raising prices - the craze for Labubu dolls in recent years and the high resale prices are an example.
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Higher incomes can also lead to higher demand, for example, which in turn pushes up prices.
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Supply and demand: Labubu dolls illustrate how inflation can rise Supply can also affect inflation.
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If supply of a product is reduced, but demand remains constant, that can cause prices to rise. A good example of this is crude oil, which is used to make gasoline and diesel. Before the US-Israel war with Iran began, it was trading at just over $70 a barrel, but when the conflict constricted crude supplies, the price quickly rose and is currently over $100.
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Inflation has risen to 3.7% in the year to September, which is a higher-than-expected increase fuelled by petrol prices.
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Vehicle fuel prices jumped by 34.2% over 12 months.
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In September alone, they jumped by 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the increase in inflation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Overall, energy inflation was up by 20.4% over the year as prices for fuel oil, energy services and electricity climbed.
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Fuel oil, used in home heating, was up 74.2% over the year. Experts said the US Federal Reserve - which sets the country's interest rate - will be closely watching to see if energy costs begin to affect other areas of the economy, such as food prices, and drive inflation higher.
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At the moment, food inflation remains subdued.
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It was flat over the month of September, and was 2.5% across the year. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, was 2.6%.
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Shortly after the latest inflation figure was released, the Social Security Administration announced that Social Security benefits including old age, survivors and disability insurance would rise by a similar amount - 3.6% - in 2027.
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The administration said that the 3.6% rise will mean an average retirement benefit increase of $75 a month.
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The cost-of-living adjustment will take effect in January for about 72 million people, while increased payments for the 7.2m receiving the supplemental security income will start on 31 December.
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Since coming into office for the second time, President Donald Trump has introduced tariffs on most US trading partners around the world.
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While most of the additional global levies were outlawed by the Supreme Court in February, the president immediately announced a new 10% global tariff to replace them.
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Trump argued the tariffs would increase America's tax earnings, boost manufacturing and encourage people to buy US-made goods, but the higher import taxes have also had an impact on inflation, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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US President Donald Trump raised tariffs Higher tariffs - which are levies that businesses pay on the goods they import - directly raise prices for US companies unless the overseas firms they are buying from lower prices to absorb some of the cost.
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In response to the new tariffs, the New York Fed found exporters reduced prices very little, meaning US-based businesses ended up absorbing nearly 90% of the cost of the added tax.
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Indirectly, higher tariffs also affected the prices of locally made goods, as many US producers rely on parts or materials from overseas.
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Overall, the Fed found that every percentage point increase in average tariffs led to nearly a 0.25% price increase for consumer goods after one year.
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While inflation is currently above where the US Federal Reserve would like - it has a target of 2% - it has been much higher in previous years.
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During the Covid pandemic, issues such as supply chain disruption started pushing inflation up.
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Additionally, in early 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, oil prices surged over $100 a barrel.
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Both of these factors helped to drive inflation to a peak of about 9%.
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It's important to note that if inflation is rising at a slower rate, that does not mean prices are going down - it simply means prices are rising at a slower pace.
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A bit of inflation is considered good for an economy as the Federal Reserve's target rate illustrates.
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Many central banks consider inflation of about 2% or a little higher to be stable, and at a level that doesn't impact people's purchasing decisions.
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Much below that, people can delay spending if they expect price rises to slow further, or to fall.
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That can lead to businesses reducing wages, or reducing the number of workers to cope with lower demand. 'It's rough out here': Americans struggle with rising inflation Which war is having the biggest impact on diesel prices - Iran or Ukraine?
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Trump wants to reduce the cost of fuel as the midterms loom - will it work?
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