Stuck between superpowers: How Australia navigates the China-US rivalry
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China's Xi Jingping and Australia's Anthony Albanese in 2024. Relations between the two countries have been rocky in recent years Snipers shatter the silence of the Australian bush.
2024 年，中国的习近平和澳大利亚的安东尼·艾博尼斯。 近年来两国关系一直不稳定 狙击手打破了澳大利亚丛林的宁静。
Then the missiles hit, the smoke rising in the distance. The buzz of drones starts up, soon to be drowned out by helicopters flying overhead. Every piece of hardware is being deployed, no expense spared.
然后导弹击中了，远处升起浓烟。 无人机的嗡嗡声开始响起，很快就被头顶上飞过的直升机淹没。 每一件硬件都在部署，不遗余力。
But this is no war zone – the last time Townsville saw conflict was during World War Two. This is a show of military might. " We live in a volatile world," says Australian Army Brigadier Ben McLennan.
但这不是战区——汤斯维尔最后一次发生冲突是在第二次世界大战期间。 这是军事实力的展示。 “我们生活在一个动荡的世界，”澳大利亚陆军准将本·麦克伦南说。
"Training an army to be prepared to fight a war that is potentially more likely than it has been previously, [is] very important."
“训练一支军队准备好打一场可能比以前更有可能发生的战争，[是]非常重要的。”
War is no longer an abstract concept for Australians who often feel removed from the problems facing other parts of the world.
对于澳大利亚人来说，战争不再是一个抽象的概念，他们常常感觉自己与世界其他地区面临的问题无关。
Thousands of miles from active conflict, the country, like everywhere else, is facing the knock-on effects of Iran and Ukraine such as higher fuel prices and rising inflation. With China's military capabilities also on the rise and its increasing influence in the Pacific, there's also more concern about the threat it represents.
与其他地方一样，该国距离激烈的冲突有数千英里，正面临着伊朗和乌克兰的连锁反应，例如燃油价格上涨和通货膨胀上升。 随着中国的军事能力不断增强，其在太平洋地区的影响力不断增强，人们对其所构成的威胁也越来越担忧。
Australia has responded by deepening its relationship with the US, its security ally and China's rival superpower. But that also puts Australia in a tricky position - for China's rise has also given Australia its biggest trading partner.
澳大利亚的回应是深化与美国、其安全盟友和中国的竞争对手超级大国的关系。 但这也让澳大利亚陷入了一个棘手的境地——因为中国的崛起也让澳大利亚成为了最大的贸易伙伴。
Australian Army Brigadier Ben McLennan says Australia is rehearsing for "the worst type of war" It's a paradox that most people are well aware of - which is probably why we've been invited to report on what Australia is doing to protect itself but nobody is willing to say whom they're preparing to fight.
澳大利亚陆军准将本·麦克伦南表示，澳大利亚正在为“最糟糕的战争类型”进行演练 大多数人都清楚这是一个悖论 - 这可能就是为什么我们被邀请报告澳大利亚正在采取哪些措施来保护自己，但没有人愿意说出他们准备与谁作战。
"We're rehearsing for a war - the worst type of war - a World War Two-like war, a World War One-type war, a total war," says Brigadier McLennan, preferring to remain vague when asked who the enemy is.
“我们正在演练一场战争——最糟糕的战争类型——一场类似第二次世界大战的战争，一场类似一战的战争，一场全面战争，”麦克伦南准将说，当被问及敌人是谁时，他宁愿保持含糊其辞。
The war scenario playing out before us is part of a major joint exercise known as "Southern Jackaroo" - a training programme involving the Australian, American and Japanese armed forces aimed at strengthening defence co-operation across the Indo-Pacific.
我们面前上演的战争场景是名为“Southern Jackaroo”的大型联合演习的一部分，这是一项由澳大利亚、美国和日本武装部队参与的训练计划，旨在加强整个印度-太平洋地区的防务合作。
"We like to call ourselves America's 911 response force," US Marine Kevin Hicks says.
“我们喜欢称自己为美国的 911 响应部队，”美国海军陆战队凯文·希克斯 (Kevin Hicks) 说。
And in terms of numbers, they are more prepared than ever.
从数量上看，他们比以往任何时候都准备得更加充分。
In 2012, just 200 US Marines were deployed to Australia for an annual six-month deployment.
2012年，只有200名美国海军陆战队员被部署到澳大利亚，每年进行为期六个月的部署。
Today, that figure has risen to around 2,500. A quick read of Australia's 2026 National Defence Strategy gives you an easy answer as to why these numbers are growing. "Intense competition between major powers – principally the United States and China – will be an enduring feature of our strategic environment," it said.
如今，这一数字已上升至 2,500 人左右。 快速阅读澳大利亚 2026 年国防战略，您就可以轻松找到这些数字为何不断增长的答案。 报告称：“主要大国——主要是美国和中国——之间的激烈竞争将成为我们战略环境的一个持久特征。”
"China continues to undertake the largest military build-up in the world today, without the transparency or strategic reassurance the region expects."
“中国继续进行当今世界上最大规模的军事建设，却没有获得该地区所期望的透明度或战略保证。”
The military tie-ups aren't just being seen in terms of troops but in bases too - most obviously in the north of the country such as RAAF Tindal air base in the Northern Territory which has been upgraded to support long-range American B52 bombers.
军事合作不仅体现在部队方面，还体现在基地方面——最明显的是在该国北部，例如北领地的皇家空军廷德尔空军基地，该基地已升级为支持远程美国 B52 轰炸机。
But the security partnership between the US, the UK and Australia - Aukus - arming Australia with nuclear submarines, is arguably the biggest example of deepening ties.
但美国、英国和澳大利亚之间的安全伙伴关系——用核潜艇武装澳大利亚——奥库斯——可以说是深化关系的最大例子。
The Australian approach differs from that of its fellow middle powers.
澳大利亚的做法不同于其他中等强国。
While Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney has talked about middle powers reorganising their priorities in light of an increasingly unreliable US, Australia seems to be intent on tying itself ever closer.
尽管加拿大总理马克·卡尼谈到中等强国应根据美国日益不可靠的情况重新调整优先事项，但澳大利亚似乎有意将自己束缚得更紧密。
The Southern Jackaroo exercises are aimed at improving defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific But that comes as Australians themselves increasingly doubt their relationship with the US. "Only 31% of Australians trust the United States to act responsibly in the world, and a mere 28% of Australians trust China to do the same," says Charles Lyons-Jones, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, citing their annual poll.
南杰克罗演习旨在改善印太地区的防务合作 但与此同时，澳大利亚人自己也越来越怀疑他们与美国的关系。 洛伊研究所 (Lowy Institute) 研究员查尔斯·里昂斯-琼斯 (Charles Lyons-Jones) 援引他们的年度民意调查表示：“只有 31% 的澳大利亚人相信美国会在世界上采取负责任的行动，只有 28% 的澳大利亚人相信中国也会这样做。”
"Those are striking findings when you consider the level of trust that the Australian government has with the United States."
“当你考虑到澳大利亚政府对美国的信任程度时，这些发现是惊人的。”
While Australia's alliance with the US is changing, so too is its relationship with China.
尽管澳大利亚与美国的联盟正在发生变化，但其与中国的关系也在发生变化。
Armed forces might be prepping for a potential military conflict but the fact remains China is Australia's most important economic partner.
武装部队可能正在为潜在的军事冲突做准备，但事实仍然是中国是澳大利亚最重要的经济伙伴。
Australia and China have had diplomatic relations since 1972 but it was only in the early 2010s that China became Australia's biggest trading partner, hungry for all the commodities it had to offer.
澳大利亚和中国自 1972 年起就建立了外交关系，但直到 2010 年代初，中国才成为澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴，渴望获得其提供的所有商品。
Australia opened up its economy and encouraged business and trade, Chinese President Xi Jinping was invited to address parliament.
澳大利亚开放经济鼓励商业贸易，中国国家主席习近平受邀在议会发表讲话。
And it culminated in the signing of a free trade agreement in 2015.
最终于2015年签署了自由贸易协定。
The golden era didn't last long though.
然而黄金时代并没有持续多久。
When Australia suggested an investigation into the origins of Covid in 2020, China objected to this line of questioning and retaliated with tariffs. And then in 2021, Australia became the first nation to perform a U-turn on China's Belt and Road Initiative - its massive global infrastructure plan - when they cancelled the state of Victoria's agreement with the Chinese government three years after signing up.
当澳大利亚建议在2020年对新冠病毒的起源进行调查时，中国反对这种质疑，并以关税进行报复。 然后在 2021 年，澳大利亚成为第一个对中国“一带一路”倡议（其庞大的全球基础设施计划）进行 180 度大转变的国家，他们在签署三年后取消了维多利亚州与中国政府的协议。
A number of Australians have also been detained in China, including journalist Cheng Lei, who was released in 2023 after more than three years. Relations have improved in recent years under the Labor government of Anthony Albanese, but it's not without challenges.
一些澳大利亚人也在中国被拘留，其中包括记者成雷，他在三年多后于 2023 年被释放。 近年来，在安东尼·艾博尼斯 (Anthony Albanese) 领导的工党政府领导下，两国关系有所改善，但也并非没有挑战。
In June this year for example, China slapped 55% tariffs on beef to protect its own domestic market - despite the free trade agreement.
例如，今年 6 月，中国尽管签订了自由贸易协定，仍对牛肉征收 55% 的关税，以保护国内市场。
China is Australia's biggest export market Even with these hiccups, this year's Lowy Institute Poll found that a majority of Australians (61%) saw China more as an economic partner than a security threat.
中国是澳大利亚最大的出口市场 尽管存在这些问题，今年洛伊研究所的民意调查发现，大多数澳大利亚人（61%）更多地将中国视为经济伙伴，而不是安全威胁。
That was an 11-point increase from last year.
这比去年增加了 11 个百分点。
When it comes to China investing in Australia though, they are more wary.
不过，当谈到中国在澳大利亚投资时，他们更加谨慎。
"There are a number of European countries which are larger investors in Australia than China, and that is because our jurisdictions are much more similar, and there is a greater level of trust between our governments," says Lyons-Jones.
里昂-琼斯表示：“许多欧洲国家在澳大利亚的投资者规模比中国大，这是因为我们的司法管辖区更加相似，而且我们政府之间的信任程度更高。”
This year's Lowy Institute Poll also showed that for the first time, a majority of Australians (51%) believed that Australia's relationship with China was more important than its relationship with the US. Earlier this month, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd – a fluent Mandarin speaker - gave an address in which he talked of "radical changes" now reshaping Australia's national security, including "the rise and rise of China at a time when America continues to debate what sort of global power it wants to be". Dr Marina Yue Zhang, an Associate Professor at the University of Technology Sydney agrees Australia's relationship with its closest ally is changing.
今年的洛伊研究所民意调查还显示，大多数澳大利亚人（51%）首次认为澳大利亚与中国的关系比与美国的关系更重要。 本月早些时候，能说一口流利普通话的前总理陆克文在一次讲话中谈到了正在重塑澳大利亚国家安全的“根本性变化”，其中包括“在美国继续争论它想成为什么样的全球强国之际，中国的崛起和崛起”。 悉尼科技大学副教授玛丽娜·岳·张博士同意澳大利亚与其最亲密盟友的关系正在发生变化。
"The US is really doing something dramatic and more and more people in Australia - and I think globally - have realised 'is this the big brother we can all trust and put all our faith in?' " she says.
“美国确实在做一些戏剧性的事情，越来越多的澳大利亚人——我认为是全球范围内的——已经意识到‘这是我们所有人都可以信任并完全信任的老大哥吗？’ “她说。
US President Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和安东尼·阿尔巴内塞。
Australians have cooled on their relationship with the US under Trump But old rivalries live on.
在特朗普的领导下，澳大利亚人与美国的关系已经降温 但旧日的竞争仍在继续。
With Australia caught between two superpowers, every exchange between their leaders carries weight.
由于澳大利亚夹在两个超级大国之间，两国领导人之间的每一次交流都具有重要意义。
And in Beijing earlier this year, when Xi met Trump, the Chinese president invoked the idea of the "Thucydides Trap", the theory that conflict can become almost inevitable when a rising power challenges an established one.
今年早些时候在北京，当习近平会见特朗普时，中国国家主席援引了“修昔底德陷阱”的概念，即当崛起的大国挑战老牌强国时，冲突几乎不可避免。
"This is, if not the transition of great powers, at least [it's] power struggles of great powers, says Zhang. And in that competition, Australia is inevitably affected.
张说：“这即使不是大国的更迭，至少也是大国的权力斗争。” 而在那场竞争中，澳大利亚也不可避免地受到影响。
The US is a security ally that while more unreliable than in the past is still its mainstay. But economically so too is China. It's not an either/or relationship, it's a balancing act.
美国是一个安全盟友，虽然比过去更加不可靠，但仍然是其支柱。 但在经济上，中国也是如此。 这不是一种非此即彼的关系，而是一种平衡行为。
"There's no way Australia will choose one side and [dump] the other- it's not in their interests," Zhang says.
“澳大利亚不可能选择一方而放弃另一方——这不符合他们的利益，”张说。
"It's getting harder and harder to maintain, but Australia has to do it."
“维持起来越来越难，但澳大利亚必须这么做。”
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