South Africa-Australia set for classic finale – what does history suggest could happen?
0 / 32
English
中文
Wiaan Mulder reached his century during a final-wicket partnership with Kagiso Rabada Third Test, Cape Town (day four of five) South Africa 329 & 387: Mulder 115, Rickelton 101 A gripping series has the finale it deserves.
（暂无翻译）
Having effectively began day four on 40-4, South Africa batted on and on against Australia in Cape Town to move from a position where defeat looked likely to one where a series victory is a real possibility.
（暂无翻译）
In being bowled out for 387 in the final over - with Ryan Rickelton making 101 and Wiaan Mulder last man out for a brilliant 115 - South Africa set the tourists a target of 288 for victory.
（暂无翻译）
WinViz - the tool analysts CricViz use to predict such results - gives the hosts a 54% chance of victory.
（暂无翻译）
Australia's target is such that should they chase it on day five, it would be the second-highest fourth-innings chase in the 62 previous Tests on this famous ground.
（暂无翻译）
The highest?
（暂无翻译）
That's a good omen for Australia.
（暂无翻译）
They chased 331 for a four-wicket win in an epic Test against the Proteas in 2002, when Ricky Ponting hit a brilliant 100 not out.
（暂无翻译）
There have been five other scores above 288 in the fourth innings at Newlands - all of which were made in defeats or when salvaging a draw. For much of the afternoon and evening sessions, as Australia's bowlers tired, this surface appeared flat enough to score.
（暂无翻译） （暂无翻译）
When Rickelton and Mulder applied themselves, few opportunities were created.
（暂无翻译）
They were able to progress to their third and fourth Test centuries respectively.
（暂无翻译）
It took a run out to end Rickelton's knock, after which Marco Jansen pulled to deep square leg and Gerald Coetzee was also run out - three dismissals down to batter error in a collapse of 4-61, which left South Africa nine down and 251 runs ahead.
（暂无翻译）
That Mulder and number 11 Kagiso Rabada flogged 36 before the close, suggested run-scoring is not impossible. None of those late runs were made under the pressure of a chase, however.
（暂无翻译） （暂无翻译）
The wicket of Simon Harmer in the final session, bowled shouldering arms by a ball from Nathan Lyon which turned back sharply showed the difficulty ahead.
（暂无翻译）
Harmer dismissed Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis and Alex Carey in Australia's first innings - all recognised batters.
（暂无翻译）
The 37-year-old Essex legend, who once considered playing for England, will be crucial.
（暂无翻译）
As ever in such scenarios, the pitch will play its part.
（暂无翻译）
The PitchViz rating - CricViz's way of assessing the difficulty of a surface - jumped to 6.6 in the final session, comfortably the highest (thus most difficult) rating of the Test.
（暂无翻译）
After settling down in the morning, the ball, as would be expected as a Test progresses, was turning significantly more in the final session than at any point across the previous four days.
（暂无翻译）
Interestingly, however, South Africa's false shot percentage was just 11% across day four, a drop from 18% on day three.
（暂无翻译）
Uneven bounce has not yet been a factor but one ball to Rickelton shortly after tea also shot low.
（暂无翻译）
Intrigue is added by the fact that whoever wins this Test will end the series top of the International Cricket Council's Test rankings.
（暂无翻译）
One man appears to likely to play a huge part in the outcome.
（暂无翻译）
Faced with a target of 205 in the first Ashes Test almost a year ago, Australia opener Head thrashed a sensational 123 from 83 balls to turn a tricky chase into a riotous charge to victory over England.
（暂无翻译）
There was a time, between 2008 and 2019, when Australia had a poor record in situations such as these.
（暂无翻译）
In that period they failed in 14 of their 17 fourth-innings chases when set targets between 200 and 350.
（暂无翻译）
That has changed in recent years, however, with Cummins' men having pulled off pursuits of 282 and 279 since 2023, in addition to the Perth victory last year.
（暂无翻译）
Few sides have been better in key moments in the modern era.
（暂无翻译）
Saturday will provide another chance for Australia to deliver under pressure.
（暂无翻译）
Notifications, social media and more with BBC Sport
（暂无翻译）
仅供学习使用，如有侵权请联系删除 · 查看原文