Questions mount over what an AI 'slowdown' would look like
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Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has called for the pace of development to be slowed down There has been no shortage of warnings from AI's top bosses about existential threats over the years.
Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei呼吁放慢发展步伐 多年来，AI的顶级老板对存在威胁的警告并不少。
I attended the world's first AI safety summit in Bletchley Park in November 2023 where the focus was on the most serious threats imaginable, posed by the most powerful AI models.
我参加了2023年11月在布莱切利公园举行的世界上第一次人工智能安全峰会，会议的重点是最强大的人工智能模型所带来的最严重的威胁。
At the time, many thought this was in the realm of sci-fi and the real threats were comparatively far more mundane: job losses, cheating in exams.
当时，许多人认为这是在科幻领域，真正的威胁相对更为平凡：失业，考试作弊。
Three years later, many of those same voices don't seem to be so sure. On Saturday head of AI company Anthropic, Dario Amodei, urged the pace of development to be slowed down - the bosses of two rival AI firms, Sam Altman of OpenAI and Elon Musk said they agreed with him.
三年后，许多同样的声音似乎不那么确定。 周六AI公司Anthropic的负责人Dario Amodei敦促放慢发展步伐-两家竞争对手AI公司的老板，OpenAI的Sam Altman和Elon Musk表示他们同意他的观点。
Meanwhile AI researcher Jacob Coxon - who quit Anthropic - told the BBC on Sunday staff who were developing the systems were "genuinely frightened" for the future of humanity.
与此同时，退出Anthropic的人工智能研究员雅各布*科克森（Jacob Coxon）周日告诉英国广播公司（BBC），正在开发这些系统的工作人员对人类的未来"真正感到恐惧"。
They all add up to a chorus of serious voices urging a slowdown, but although it might sound like a quick fix, it is far from an easy solution.
他们都加起来是一群敦促经济放缓的严肃声音，但尽管这听起来像是一个快速解决方案，但这远不是一个简单的解决方案。
AI staff 'genuinely frightened' for humanity's future, ex-Anthropic researcher tells BBC America is widely understood to be terrified of losing the race to build the most powerful AI to China.
人工智能工作人员"真正害怕"人类的未来，前人类研究员告诉BBC 美国被广泛理解为害怕失去向中国建立最强大的人工智能的竞赛。
On Sunday President Trump made his own views clear, claiming the US was ahead of China in the AI race and declaring: "Whoever wins AI, wins."
周日，特朗普总统明确表达了自己的观点，声称美国在人工智能竞赛中领先于中国，并宣称："谁赢得人工智能，谁就赢。"
China isn't renowned for wanting to come second.
中国并不以想要获得第二名而闻名。
Everyone I speak to says that even if their company pauses, others will not and they will just get left behind.
与我交谈的每个人都说，即使他们的公司暂停，其他人也不会，他们只会被甩在后面。
It reminds me of the height of the campaign for nuclear disarmament. The problem then too was that nobody wanted to go first. There is also the question of how on earth a slowdown would be enforced. Who would police it?
这让我想起了核裁军运动的高度。 当时的问题也是没有人想先走。 还有一个问题是，如何在地球上实施放缓。 谁会监管它？
Would we be relying on the AI companies to be transparent about what they are doing, and more importantly what they are choosing not to do? That would require an epic level of trust, which arguably the tech sector has never earned. Although Amodei in his post proposed a three-point plan that included independent monitoring of AI models as they are developed, industry-wide regulation and global regulation, some observers question how this would work in practice. "Nobody has given a substantive explanation of what 'slowdown' means," said Ed Zitron, CEO of EZ Primary Research.
我们是否会依赖人工智能公司对他们正在做的事情保持透明，更重要的是他们选择不做什么？ 这需要一个史诗般的信任水平，这可以说是科技行业从未赢得过的。 虽然Amodei在他的职位上提出了一个三点计划，其中包括对ai模型的独立监控，行业范围的监管和全球监管，但一些观察家质疑这将如何在实践中发挥作用。 EZ Primary Research首席执行官Ed Zitron表示："没有人对'减速'意味着什么给出了实质性的解释。"
"Putting a plant from METR, where one of the guys who quit Anthropic went, in every AI company?
"把一个工厂从METR，其中一个退出Anthropic的家伙去了，在每个AI公司？
Democratic and global 'co-ordination'?
民主和全球的"协调"？
Doesn't mean anything to me." Zitron said stopping training AI models would leave them vulnerable to Chinese rivals. "Their margins might improve but their products will be captured in amber and distilled by Chinese labs.
对我来说没有任何意义。" Zitron表示，停止训练AI模型将使它们容易受到中国竞争对手的影响。 "他们的利润可能会提高，但他们的产品将被捕获在琥珀中，并由中国实验室蒸馏。
They may have to change pricing.
他们可能不得不改变定价。
I truly don't know how it all works. "This could burst the bubble. But right now we are very thin on what a 'slowdown' means."
我真的不知道这一切是如何运作的。 "这可能会破灭泡沫。 但现在我们对"减速"意味着什么非常了解。"
'There is a possibility of human extinction,' former Anthropic employee says about AI In the UK, we have heard about plans to roll out the tech more widely within the NHS to improve patient care, and how AI gave the UK economy a much-needed boost over the summer. We are all being encouraged to use it more and more at work, in education and in our personal lives.
人类前雇员谈到人工智能时说，人类有可能灭绝 在英国，我们听说计划在NHS中更广泛地推出这项技术以改善患者护理，以及人工智能如何在夏季为英国经济带来急需的提振。 我们都被鼓励在工作，教育和个人生活中越来越多地使用它。
The industry is a key part of the UK's strategy to drive economic growth.
该行业是英国推动经济增长战略的关键部分。
"There is no plan B" a former government adviser told me, so could a slowdown wreck future prospects here in Britain? The AI industry is burning through enormous amounts of money and natural resources and so far, is not creating nearly as much revenue.
"没有b计划"一位前政府顾问告诉我，那么经济放缓会破坏英国未来的前景吗？ 人工智能行业正在消耗大量资金和自然资源，到目前为止，并没有创造几乎相同的收入。
There are multiple reports suggesting a number of firms adopting the technology are disappointed by it. Economists widely speculate that even the current giants are not all likely to survive and that some kind of "levelling" is coming – also known as a bursting bubble.
有多份报告表明，许多采用该技术的公司对此感到失望。 经济学家广泛推测，即使是目前的巨头也不可能都生存下来，并且某种"水平化"即将到来–也被称为泡沫破裂。
But those firms which do make it could end up becoming the most powerful mega-corporations the world has ever seen, and that comes with its own issues. OpenAI choosing to halt its march to the stock market could be seen as an epiphany-like moment of taking responsibility for public safety – but it could also be the move of a company which has realised it might not get the lucrative payout it needs while its entire product is perceived to be lethal.
但那些成功的公司最终可能成为世界上有史以来最强大的大公司，这也带来了自己的问题。 OpenAI选择停止向股市进军可能被视为对公共安全负责的顿悟般的时刻-但它也可能是一家公司的举动，该公司意识到它可能无法获得所需的利润丰厚的
"One of the probably the biggest challenges that we have right now is that no one can predict with certainty how this technology is going to evolve," says Alexander Voica from the UK AI company Synthesia. "We know that these systems are getting more powerful, but we don't know where and how they're going to be used, and we haven't figured out essentially a way of taking full advantage of their potential.
英国人工智能公司Synthesia的Alexander Voica表示："我们目前面临的最大挑战之一可能是，没有人能够确切地预测这项技术将如何发展。 "我们知道这些系统变得越来越强大，但我们不知道它们将在哪里以及如何使用，而且我们还没有找到充分利用其潜力的方法。
My only concern in rushing to regulate now, where there's still a lot of open questions, is that it could actually backfire."
我现在急于监管的唯一问题是，它实际上可能适得其反。"
We also can't deny the fact that underpinning this entire tech revolution is an ocean of investor cash.
我们也不能否认一个事实，即支撑整个技术革命的是投资者现金的海洋。
"I'm not worried about the existential risks of AI, I'm worried about the corporate greed of the companies that are creating it," says Sasha Luccioni, the founder of Sustainable AI. Leading computer scientist Professor dame Wendy Hall, who has advised the UN about AI, says the current crisis is all about the companies not behaving responsibly enough.
可持续AI创始人Sasha Luccioni表示："我并不担心人工智能存在的风险，我担心的是创造人工智能的公司的企业贪婪。 领先的计算机科学家dame Wendy Hall教授曾为联合国提供人工智能方面的建议，他表示，目前的危机都是因为公司的行为不够负责任。
She likens the current situation to a farmer having a bull in a field which escapes and causes destruction – and the farmer blames the bull.
她把目前的情况比作一个农民在一个逃跑并造成破坏的田地里有一头公牛-农民责怪公牛。
"Of course it's not the bull's fault – it's the farmer," she says.
"当然这不是公牛的错–这是农民，"她说。
Clearly, the fences weren't robust enough, and that is exactly what she says we are seeing with AI guardrails right now.
显然，围栏不够坚固，这正是她说我们现在看到的AI护栏。
But if those guardrails become too restrictive, could this spell the end of AI?
但是，如果这些护栏变得过于限制，这可能意味着AI的终结吗？
Some believe there is a more secretive, politically-motivated push for a rules-based clampdown in order to "regulate AI into oblivion" as Parker Thayer, an investigative researcher at the Conservative-leaning Capital Research Centre think-tank, put it on X this week. His post was viewed nearly eight million times.
一些人认为，保守派倾向的资本研究中心智囊团的调查研究员帕克*塞耶（Parker Thayer）本周将其放在X上，这是一个更加隐秘，出于政治动机的推动，以基于规则的 他的帖子被浏览了近八百万次。
It is an extreme and unproven view but it shows that not everybody is on board with the idea of regulation saving the day.
这是一个极端和未经证实的观点，但它表明，并非所有人都支持监管的想法。
Whatever the reality, the storm currently engulfing the AI industry could already have caused reputational damage to the firms currently in pole position forever.
无论现实如何，目前席卷人工智能行业的风暴可能已经对目前处于领先地位的公司造成了声誉损失。
As Professor Hall puts it: "Would you invest in a company that says it's going to bring about human extinction?" Anthropic boss Dario Amodei calls for AI development to slow down Dramatic insider warnings over AI fall flat with some in Silicon Valley Trump downplays AI risks after dire expert warnings and calls to slow development down
正如霍尔教授所说："你会投资一家公司，说这将导致人类灭绝吗？" 人类老板Dario Amodei呼吁AI发展放缓 关于人工智能的戏剧性内部警告与硅谷的一些人持平 特朗普在可怕的专家警告和呼吁减缓发展后淡化人工智能风险
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