Nationals leader Matt Canavan eyes move to lower house as pollster warns of One Nation wipeout
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Matt Canavan could attempt a switch to the House of Representatives after a colleague announced her looming retirement, as a leading pollster said the Nationals leader had a “zero per cent” chance of holding his Senate seat if the One Nation polling surge remains unchanged.
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Veteran National MP Michelle Landry on Friday announced she would not recontest her Queensland seat of Capricornia, around Rockhampton, at the next election.
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Responding to speculation that Pauline Hanson could attempt her own switch to run in that seat, Landry said One Nation was “not very pleasant” and criticised the party’s “obnoxious” cartoon videos.
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“I think they need to pull their heads in,” Landry said of One Nation.
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There has been heavy speculation Canavan will run in Capricornia. Canavan earlier this month said he would do “whatever it takes” to hold Capricornia, telling Sky News: “if I’m required, if it is required to keep a seat, to hold one more seat in the lower house somewhere. I will do it.” On Friday, at a press conference with Landry, Canavan shrugged off questions but did not rule it out.
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Landry denied she was pushed to resign from Capricornia to make way for another Nationals member, and declined to speculate on who could run as her replacement. The Coalition leader, Angus Taylor, also declined to speculate about a Canavan lower house switch when asked at a separate press conference, only praising the Nationals leader as an “extraordinary colleague”.
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Kos Samaras, director at polling group Redbridge, said Canavan faced losing his Senate spot in 2028, pointing to current polling showing a One Nation surge which he claimed could see Hanson’s party win upper house seats currently held by the Coalition.
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Senators up for re-election in Queensland at the next poll include two LNP members in James McGrath and Canavan, two Labor, one Greens, and Hanson herself.
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But One Nation’s surge means the party could win one or more additional Senate seats, most likely at the expense of the second person on the LNP ticket – Canavan. “He goes from a 0% chance of being elected as a senator, to potentially winning [in Capricornia],” Samaras said.
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“That will also be difficult, because of One Nation, but he [Canavan] is in a better position going downstairs.” Last month’s Guardian Essential poll showed One Nation with a 25% primary vote nationwide, with Labor at 29% and the Coalition at an all-time low 22%.
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Landry took a parting shot at One Nation, and the prospects if Hanson were to attempt a run in Capricornia, in her press conference.
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“I’ve had a lot of dealings with One Nation over the years, and I can tell you, most of it hasn’t been very pleasant.
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“When I look at people that move into an area to run for a political position, it doesn’t usually end well,” Landry said.
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Samaras pointed to Redbridge polling showing what he called “a complete wipeout” of the Coalition at the hands of One Nation, specifically a large analysis from May showing Hanson’s party winning up to 59 seats nationally – largely from the Liberals and Nationals.
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“On current polling, they’ll win nearly every seat the LNP holds in Queensland,” Samaras said, including Senate spots.
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“If there’s a state in this country that’s good for One Nation, it’s Queensland.” However, Samaras noted large “volatility” in polling nationwide, noting that the Queensland’s state LNP government was polling well.
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