Lightning Houthi advance in Yemen may bring dangerous new dimension to Iran war
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Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have been struggling to contain Houthi advances The Houthis' lightning advance across the southern reaches of the Tihamah – Yemen's arid coastal plain – appears to have taken most observers by surprise.
沙特支持的也门军队一直在努力遏制胡塞武装的进展 胡塞武装闪电般地越过也门干旱的沿海平原提哈马南部地区，这似乎让大多数观察家感到惊讶。
Until recently, the anti-Houthi coalition known as the National Resistance held significant territory along Yemen's Red Sea coast.
直到最近，被称为“国家抵抗运动”的反胡塞联盟还占据也门红海沿岸的大片领土。
In a matter of days, much of this has fallen to the Houthis. According to some estimates, the Iranian-backed rebels have captured as much as 130km (81 miles) of the country's strategically important coastline.
几天之内，大部分事情都落到了胡塞武装手中。 据估计，伊朗支持的叛军已经占领了该国长达 130 公里（81 英里）的具有重要战略意义的海岸线。
It's the group's most impressive military coup for several years, proving that despite a civil war that has lasted 12 years, devastating Saudi air raids and attacks by American, Israeli and British forces, the Houthis remain a force to be reckoned with.
这是该组织多年来最令人印象深刻的军事政变，证明尽管内战已持续12年，沙特的空袭和美国、以色列和英国军队的袭击造成毁灭性打击，但胡塞武装仍然是一支不可忽视的力量。
With their opponents stunned and demoralised, it's unlikely the Houthis will be dislodged any time soon.
由于对手感到震惊和士气低落，胡塞武装不太可能很快被驱逐。
Houthis claim major advance in Yemen and tighten grip on Red Sea shipping lane Oil hits $100 a barrel for first time since July after US and Houthi strikes "Now that they are there, they're going to be entrenched," Hisham al-Omeisi, senior analyst at the Brussels-based European Institute of Peace, told the BBC.
胡塞武装声称在也门取得重大进展并加强对红海航线的控制 美国和胡塞武装发动袭击后，油价自 7 月以来首次触及每桶 100 美元 总部位于布鲁塞尔的欧洲和平研究所高级分析师希沙姆·奥梅斯 (Hisham al-Omeisi) 告诉英国广播公司 (BBC)，“既然他们已经在那里，他们就会根深蒂固。”
"And it's going to be a lot more costly to push them out."
“而将他们驱逐出去的成本将会更高。”
Of course, the Houthis are not alone.
当然，胡塞武装并不孤单。
They enjoy the backing of Iran, support that has become even more important for Tehran in the wake of the setbacks and defeats experienced by other parts of its so-called "Axis of Resistance" – Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza and the Assad regime in Syria. "So they redirected their support to the Houthis," al-Omeisi said.
他们得到了伊朗的支持，在德黑兰所谓的“抵抗轴心”的其他部分——黎巴嫩真主党、加沙的哈马斯和叙利亚的阿萨德政权——经历了挫折和失败之后，这种支持对德黑兰来说变得更加重要。 “因此他们将支持转向胡塞武装，”奥梅西说。
"And of course they need that support." Even though most analysts agree that it's a mistake simply to describe the Houthis as Iranian puppets, events of the past few days raise an uncomfortable new reality.
“他们当然需要这种支持。” 尽管大多数分析人士都认为，简单地将胡塞武装描述为伊朗傀儡是错误的，但过去几天发生的事件提出了一个令人不安的新现实。
Seven months after the US and Israel launched their huge, combined assault on Iran, the regime in Tehran now exerts authority over not just one, but two of the world's most important maritime passages: the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, and the Bab al-Mandab, gateway to the Red Sea (and the Suez Canal). "Now Iran, directly and through proxies, controls two of the most strategic choke points in the Middle East and the world," says Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at London's Chatham House think tank, "controlling more than 35% of the fuel and oil trade globally."
美国和以色列对伊朗发动大规模联合攻击七个月后，德黑兰政权现在不仅对一个，而且对两个世界上最重要的海上通道行使权力：波斯湾口的霍尔木兹海峡和通往红海（和苏伊士运河）的门户曼德海峡。 伦敦查塔姆研究所研究员法雷亚·穆斯利米表示：“现在，伊朗直接或通过代理人控制了中东和世界上两个最具战略意义的咽喉要道，控制着全球超过 35% 的燃料和石油贸易。”
"This is as much leverage as a nuclear bomb," he says.
“这就像核弹一样强大，”他说。
If the Houthis have also taken control of several key islands in the Red Sea, including Perim - which sits in the middle of the narrowest point of the Bab al-Mandab - then the group's ability to interfere with international shipping will be greatly enhanced.
如果胡塞武装还控制了红海的几个关键岛屿，包括位于曼德海峡最狭窄处中部的佩林岛，那么该组织干扰国际航运的能力将大大增强。
As the group's actions in the wake of Israel's war on Gaza proved, shipping in the Red Sea is highly vulnerable to Houthi missiles, drones and small attack boats.
正如该组织在以色列对加沙战争后采取的行动所证明的那样，红海航运极易受到胡塞导弹、无人机和小型攻击船的攻击。
"They were able to control what was going in and out of the Bab al-Mandab and up towards Suez without having these territorial gains," Yemen expert Iona Craig told BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Friday.
也门专家艾奥娜·克雷格周五对英国广播公司第四台《今日》节目表示：“他们能够控制进出曼德海峡以及通往苏伊士运河的货物，而无需获得这些领土。”
"But of course now they're controlling the area immediately overlooking the Bab al-Mandab, and this gives them far more leverage."
“但当然，现在他们控制了俯瞰曼德门的地区，这给了他们更大的影响力。”
Shipping companies are likely to be sceptical about the sincerity of a statement released on Friday afternoon, in which the Houthi military said that maritime navigation was "safe for all companies except for Saudi vessels, which have already been subject to a blockade".
航运公司可能会对周五下午发布的一份声明的诚意表示怀疑，胡塞军方在声明中表示，海上航行“对所有公司来说都是安全的，除了沙特船只，沙特船只已经受到封锁”。
In their earlier attacks, the Houthis said they were only targeting vessels linked to Israel, but in fact hit ships with no such connection, including a Norwegian-flagged tanker.
在早些时候的袭击中，胡塞武装声称他们只针对与以色列有联系的船只，但实际上袭击了与以色列没有联系的船只，其中包括一艘悬挂挪威国旗的油轮。
Craig said the Houthis may nevertheless refrain from indiscriminate attacks, fearing a repeat of Operation Rough Rider - six weeks of major US air and naval strikes in the spring of 2025.
克雷格表示，胡塞武装可能会避免不分青红皂白的袭击，因为他们担心“粗暴骑士行动”会重演——美国将于 2025 年春季进行为期六周的大规模空中和海上打击。
"They've already felt the wrath of the US," she said.
“他们已经感受到了美国的愤怒，”她说。
But would the US want to get involved anyway?
但美国是否愿意参与其中呢？
President Donald Trump's war with Iran is already unpopular.
唐纳德·特朗普总统与伊朗的战争已经不受欢迎。
With oil prices creeping back up, it's doubtful that a new front would do much to enhance his approval ratings or his Republican party's chances in November's midterm US elections.
随着油价回升，新战线能否大幅提高他的支持率或共和党在 11 月美国中期选举中的胜算，值得怀疑。
The Houthis control large parts of Yemen, including the main city Sanaa According to the Axios website, appeals for US intervention from the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have so far gone unanswered.
胡塞武装控制也门大部分地区，包括主要城市萨那 据 Axios 网站报道，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼要求美国干预的呼吁迄今尚未得到答复。
Axios writes that the US "is increasingly concerned about the escalating conflict in Yemen and is working to intensify its support for the kingdom while simultaneously seeking to avoid direct military involvement". But it's not just the potential threat to the Bab al-Mandab that's causing fear in Saudi Arabia.
Axios 写道，美国“越来越关注也门不断升级的冲突，并正在努力加强对也门王国的支持，同时寻求避免直接军事介入”。 但引起沙特阿拉伯恐惧的不仅仅是曼德门的潜在威胁。
Satellite images of an apparent Houthi missile-and-drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline – a vital alternative route for oil exports following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year – point to an effort by Iran's Yemeni allies to add to the economic pressures generated by the US-Israeli war with Iran.
卫星图像显示，沙特阿拉伯的东西方管道明显遭到胡塞武装导弹和无人机袭击。该管道是今年早些时候霍尔木兹海峡关闭后石油出口的重要替代路线，这表明伊朗的也门盟友正在努力增加美以战争所产生的经济压力。
Even if Iran did not directly order the attack, it clearly stands to benefit.
即使伊朗没有直接下令发动袭击，它也显然会从中受益。
Baraa Shaiban, a researcher and analyst at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, says the origins of the latest upsurge in fighting – the worst since a United Nations-brokered truce in 2022 - can be traced back to July, when a Houthi delegation returned from the state funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
总部位于伦敦的皇家联合军种研究所的研究员兼分析员巴拉·谢班表示，最近一次战斗激增的根源可以追溯到 2022 年联合国斡旋停火以来最严重的一次，当时胡塞武装代表团参加完伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊的国葬归来。
"Immediately after, the escalation started," he says, "and it looked very clearly that [Iran was] determined to now have a bigger foothold on the Red Sea".
“紧接着，事态升级，”他说，“而且很明显，[伊朗]决心在红海拥有更大的立足点”。
With Yemen teetering on the edge of a return to all-out war, Saudi Arabia anxious about preserving its economic lifeline to the Red Sea and Donald Trump apparently reluctant to get involved, America's conflict with Iran just took on a new and potentially dangerous dimension.
由于也门正处于全面战争的边缘，沙特阿拉伯急于保留其通往红海的经济生命线，而唐纳德·特朗普显然不愿介入，美国与伊朗的冲突刚刚呈现出一个新的、潜在危险的层面。
For the people of Yemen, displaced, bombed, starved and impoverished by a dozen years of civil war, recent developments can only make their lives worse.
对于因十几年内战而流离失所、遭受轰炸、饥饿和贫困的也门人民来说，最近的事态发展只会让他们的生活变得更糟。
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