Israel heads to polls for pivotal election defined by security and democracy
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Polling published on Friday suggests Gadi Eisenkot (left) is in a tight race with incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu (right) Israelis are heading to the polls for what many view as one of the most pivotal elections in the country's history.
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Polling published on Friday suggests incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu is in a near neck-and-neck race with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot to become prime minister.
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But neither of their political blocs are projected to win the 61 seats needed to form a majority government - meaning weeks or months of political wrangling may lie ahead.
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The campaign has been shaped by the issue of security - with the opposition bloc hammering Netanyahu for the unprecedented security failure that led to the 7 October Hamas-led attacks on Israel, in which nearly 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken back to Gaza as hostages.
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They have pushed for an independent commission of inquiry into the attacks - something Netanyahu has long resisted, insisting it would be biased against him.
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Despite the opposition's attack lines, Netanyahu has once again framed himself as "Mr Security" - pointing to what he says are strategic victories in Israel's wars across the Middle East and his close relationship with US President Donald Trump.
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Israel's proportional representation system means governments have always been coalitions - and the race to power can, and has, produced unexpected alliances.
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But this election looks especially tight - and lines in the sand have already been drawn. Eisenkot, who leads the newly formed Yashar Party, is the main figure in the so-called "change bloc", a collection of parties who have ideological differences but share the goal of ousting Netanyahu.
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Other leaders in the bloc include former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman - both right-wingers who take hardline positions on security - and Yair Golan, a left-leaning former general.
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For Netanyahu, a titan of Israeli politics who first served as prime minister in 1996, a return to power will hinge on another alliance with the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that make up his current governing coalition - the most right-wing in Israel's history.
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There are two Arab party blocs in the running too, as about one-fifth of Israel's population is Arab - many of whom describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.
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In theory, they could prove kingmakers. But all but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out working with them. Far-right ministers and settlers Itamar Ben Gvir (left) and Bezalel Smotrich (centre) and have been key voices in Netanyahu's government, and lead separate far-right parties The opposition bloc also point to what they see as threats to democracy under Netanyahu, who faces an ongoing trial on corruption charges - which he denies - and is still pursuing contentious plans for reforms to the judicial system, which led to mass protests before the 7 October attacks.
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On Sunday, Israel's Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu had pushed for last-minute military action that could trigger a confrontation with Iran prior to the elections - but was opposed by his own military chief Eyal Zamir.
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The following day, CNN reported that he had also tried to persuade Trump to carry out new strikes on Iran, but that Trump had refused to give the green light.
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Netanyahu denied both reports. He also made headlines in the final days of his campaign for posting an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv, warning that he is the only leader who can protect Israel "if the Iranians acquire nuclear weapons". Eisenkot called him "hysterical".
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Another dominating issue has been conscription, with Netanyahu's government failing to enforce a Supreme Court ruling that ultra-Orthodox Jewish men in full-time religious study should be conscripted to the military - a highly divisive move as thousands of others have been conscripted to fight in recent wars. Netanyahu is currently in coalition with two ultra-Orthodox parties, who have supported protests against conscription Eisenkot takes a broadly similar position to Netanyahu on Gaza, and has pledged to end Hamas rule in the territory within 18 months, through a US-led peace plan or, if necessary, military means.
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Israel has continued to strike Gaza almost every day since a ceasefire was agreed last year, saying it is targeting Hamas operatives.
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The Israeli military has killed more than 74,000 people since the start of the war, according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry whose figures are considered reliable by the UN.
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Israel has faced growing international condemnation over its conduct in the war, and relations with its allies around the world have deteriorated.
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Eisenkot largely supports Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank - which are illegal under international law - but wants to crack down on extremist Jewish settlers whose attacks are at an all-time high, according to UN figures. He has also spoken about creating the conditions for "autonomy or a state-minus" for Palestinians - under ultimate Israeli security control.
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The two-state solution - the creation of an independent Palestinian state in peaceful coexistence alongside Israel - has all but disappeared from mainstream Israeli politics.
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Though some have speculated the Arab parties may end up informally propping up an Eisenkot-led minority government - Lieberman, a key prospective member, has ruled out being part of such an arrangement. Red lines like these mean the electoral arithmetic is complex - but it remains to be seen what kind of concessions, deals and U-turns can be reached once the results come in.
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Watch: Why it could take time for a new Israeli government to form An unprecedented 70,000 people have reportedly flown home from abroad to vote, while half a million are set to cast ballots for the first time.
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At 22:00 (20:00 GMT) on Tuesday, Israeli broadcasters will publish exit polls.
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These will give some indication of the direction of voting, but can vary significantly.
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Up and down the country, Israelis will gather to watch the results trickle in, with Netanyahu's Likud meeting in Jerusalem and Eisenkot's Yashar - formed only last year - assembling in Tel Aviv.
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Hundreds of thousands of Israeli soldiers and reservists will also cast ballots, but many of those votes will not begin being counted until Wednesday - meaning there may be a late boon for the right-wing parties who are thought to have strong support from that demographic.
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Though often framed as a run-off between Eisenkot and Netanyahu, it is possible another leader could take power, if they were to withhold their party's support for a coalition unless given the top job. An outcome dreaded by many is political deadlock - where no bloc is able to reach a majority, and a minority government cannot be formed.
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In that scenario, new elections would be called, with Netanyahu to remain as interim prime minister.
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Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as parties struggled time and again to co-operate.
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Israel and the US are both going to the polls - the consequences will be global How Arab parties could hold critical balance of power in Israeli election Israel's far right find fertile ground among first-time voters How do Israel's elections work and who are the main contenders?
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The bitter row over military service that could shape Israel's future
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