Europe targeted by spiralling campaign of sabotage - and Russia is the chief suspect
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Germany said the attack at Leipzig airport was part of a pattern of "Russian hybrid operations" in Europe As summer temperatures in Europe smashed records and many politicians shifted to holiday mode, Russia remained focused on its war.
德国称莱比锡机场袭击是欧洲“俄罗斯混合行动”模式的一部分 随着欧洲夏季气温打破纪录，许多政客转向度假模式，俄罗斯仍然专注于战争。
Not only did its military attacks across Ukraine intensify last month, becoming ever more deadly for civilians, Russia also appears to have escalated its sabotage campaign across Europe.
俄罗斯不仅上个月加强了对乌克兰的军事袭击，对平民造成的杀伤力越来越大，而且似乎还升级了在欧洲各地的破坏活动。
This time, military and defence sector sites were the prime target.
这一次，军事和国防部门是主要目标。
A full month after drones packed with explosives were found at Leipzig's airport, used by Ukraine to transport military goods, Germany's interior minister has declared that "Russia is responsible".
在莱比锡机场发现乌克兰用来运输军用物资的载有爆炸物的无人机整整一个月后，德国内政部长宣布“俄罗斯应对此负责”。
Russia's President Vladimir Putin is demanding proof, as always, and his officials call the accusation "absurd".
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京一如既往地要求提供证据，他的官员称这一指控“荒谬”。
But the drones were just a dramatic start.
但无人机只是一个戏剧性的开始。
August then brought a series of suspicious fires at defence facilities from Italy to Estonia. Some of the affected countries have already blamed Russia; others are still investigating and some fires may eventually be ruled accidental, exactly as such attacks are designed to seem.
随后，从意大利到爱沙尼亚的国防设施发生了一系列可疑火灾。 一些受影响国家已经指责俄罗斯；其他人仍在调查，有些火灾最终可能被裁定为意外，正如此类袭击的设计初衷。
"There are many, many signals that Russia is changing its strategy and intensifying its activities, including terrorist and sabotage activities," Marcin Kierwiński said, warning people to be on their guard.
马尔钦·基尔温斯基说：“有很多很多迹象表明，俄罗斯正在改变其战略并加剧其活动，包括恐怖主义和破坏活动。”他警告人们保持警惕。
Germany says Russia behind Leipzig airport drone attack EU and Nato vow to step up pressure on Russia after 'new escalation' in Germany 4 August Germany: The first drone at Leipzig airport is discovered. 10 August Bulgaria: A major fire breaks out at a warehouse of defence firm EMCO in Tryavna.
德国称俄罗斯是莱比锡机场无人机袭击的幕后黑手 德国局势“新升级”后，欧盟和北约誓言加大对俄罗斯施压 8 月 4 日德国：莱比锡机场发现第一架无人机。 8 月 10 日保加利亚：特里亚夫纳国防公司 EMCO 的一个仓库发生重大火灾。
In a statement, the company recalled previous blasts at its facilities which were investigated for links to Russia.
该公司在一份声明中回顾了此前发生的设施爆炸事件，这些爆炸事件已被调查是否与俄罗斯有关。
"Human error is excluded," it said. 13 August Italy: A fire at KNDS Ammo Italy outside Rome triggers a large explosion.
“排除人为错误，”它说。 8 月 13 日，意大利：罗马郊外的 KNDS Ammo Italy 发生火灾，引发大爆炸。
The local prosecutor is looking into possible outside interference, La Repubblica newspaper reports.
据《共和报》报道，当地检察官正在调查可能的外部干扰。
Publicly, his office will only confirm that a case has been opened for negligent disaster against "unknown persons". 15 August Estonia: The Milrem Robotics factory in Tallinn, which the Kyiv Post says supplies drones to Ukraine, goes up in flames. Two suspects are arrested. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal says the possibility of Russian sabotage is being "taking seriously" by investigators. 25 August Slovakia: Police announce they have averted an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned drone manufacturer and seized a "large amount of incendiary mixture".
在公开场合，他的办公室只会确认针对“不明人士”的过失灾难案件已立案。 8 月 15 日 爱沙尼亚：塔林 Milrem 机器人工厂起火，《基辅邮报》称该工厂向乌克兰供应无人机。 两名嫌疑人被捕。 爱沙尼亚总理克里斯汀·米哈尔表示，调查人员正在“认真对待”俄罗斯破坏的可能性。 8 月 25 日斯洛伐克：警方宣布，他们避免了针对一家乌克兰无人机制造商的纵火袭击，并缴获了“大量燃烧混合物”。
The firm itself blames Russia and police arrest three suspects who they say were "following orders".
该公司本身将责任归咎于俄罗斯，警方逮捕了三名嫌疑人，并称他们是“奉命”。
Slovakia is Russia's close ally in Europe. 30 August Poland: A country which is heavily targeted for sabotage reports two more fires. One is in Lublin at a company which produces helicopter components.
斯洛伐克是俄罗斯在欧洲的亲密盟友。 8 月 30 日 波兰：一个遭受严重破坏的国家报告又发生两起火灾。 其中之一是在卢布林一家生产直升机零部件的公司。
Prime Minister Donald Tusk said arson "cannot be ruled out". An attack on the drone producer, WB Group, is clearer cut.
总理唐纳德·图斯克表示“不能排除纵火”。 针对无人机生产商 WB 集团的攻击更加明确。
A masked man is caught on CCTV throwing incendiary devices.
闭路电视拍到一名蒙面男子投掷燃烧装置。
Tusk calls it a "continuation of Russia's escalatory activities". The pattern has continued into September with two Bulgarians arrested in Munich, Germany, for suspected arson after throwing incendiary devices from a car at defence firm Rhode & Schwartz. Separately, police say they are hunting a climate extremist suspected of sabotage attacks this week on power substations in western Germany.
图斯克称其为“俄罗斯升级活动的延续”。 这种情况一直持续到9月份，两名保加利亚人因涉嫌纵火从罗德与施瓦茨国防公司的汽车中投掷燃烧装置而在德国慕尼黑被捕。 另外，警方表示，他们正在追捕一名涉嫌本周对德国西部变电站进行破坏袭击的气候极端分子。
The 31 August fire at Skarżysko-Kamienna targeted one of Poland's biggest defence firms Attacks on military and defence targets are not new, although previous acts of sabotage linked to Russia include more puzzling targets - such as an Ikea store and a Polish paint store.
8 月 31 日，Skarżysko-Kamienna 发生的火灾以波兰最大的国防公司之一为目标 对军事和国防目标的攻击并不新鲜，尽管之前与俄罗斯有关的破坏行为包括更令人费解的目标，例如宜家商店和波兰油漆店。
The novelty now is the concentration of cases. "The intensity of military sites being attacked we've seen over the past couple of weeks is unusual," Daniela Richterova of the Department of War Studies at King's College says.
现在的新鲜事是案件的集中。 国王学院战争研究系的丹妮拉·里奇特洛娃（Daniela Richterova）表示：“过去几周我们看到的军事设施遭受攻击的强度是不同寻常的。”
She links the spike to developments in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "We've basically seen Ukraine take the war to Russia and strike deep inside Russian territory…They [Moscow] are under pressure, they have to do something." Whilst some sabotage is staged to sow chaos or fear, Richterova believes the Kremlin's aim right now is "coercive signalling": pressuring countries to stop supporting Kyiv by raising the stakes.
她将这一激增与俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的事态发展联系起来。 “我们基本上已经看到乌克兰将战争带向俄罗斯，并深入俄罗斯领土……他们（莫斯科）面临压力，他们必须采取行动。” 虽然一些破坏活动是为了制造混乱或恐惧，但里奇特洛娃认为，克里姆林宫目前的目标是“发出强制性信号”：通过提高赌注向各国施压，要求他们停止支持基辅。
After a slow start, Germany is Ukraine's biggest supplier of military aid.
经过缓慢的起步后，德国成为乌克兰最大的军事援助提供者。
To some, Russia is less concerned about "turning off the taps" of supplies to Ukraine and more about testing Nato for weaknesses.
对一些人来说，俄罗斯不太关心“关闭”对乌克兰的供应，而更关心测试北约的弱点。
"Russia is probing the boundaries of what's acceptable and collecting information on the results.
“俄罗斯正在探索可接受的界限，并收集有关结果的信息。
They find out what works, and what's vulnerable," argues Keir Giles from the Chatham House think tank.
他们找出什么是有效的，什么是脆弱的，”查塔姆研究所智囊团的基尔贾尔斯（Keir Giles）说。
He sees the sabotage campaign as preparation for the "next phase", as he puts it, of Russia's aggression in Europe.
正如他所说，他认为破坏活动是为俄罗斯对欧洲的“下一阶段”侵略做准备。
"They're assessing the willingness of the victim country to actually do something about it."
“他们正在评估受害国实际采取行动的意愿。”
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which tracks sabotage cases, points to a previous surge in 2024 when Ukraine's allies began allowing it to use Western-supplied weapons deeper inside Russia. 2024 was the year of the parcel bomb plot, when Russia was accused of sending packages containing liquid explosive to the UK and Poland.
追踪破坏案件的国际战略研究所 (IISS) 指出，2024 年乌克兰的盟友开始允许其在俄罗斯境内使用西方提供的武器，破坏事件就曾出现激增。 2024年是包裹炸弹阴谋年，俄罗斯被指控向英国和波兰发送含有液体炸药的包裹。
One ignited shortly before it was loaded on to a DHL cargo plane.
其中一颗在被装载到 DHL 货机前不久起火。
It is thought this was a test run for something significantly bigger.
人们认为这是对更大的东西的试运行。
Four parcels were sent from Lithuania to the UK and Poland in 2024 - two caught fire, at a warehouse in the UK and at Leipzig's airport Inside the Russian explosives plot that sent incendiary parcels to the UK "That was a marked high in terms of their willingness to inflict mass casualties," Giles adds.
2024 年，四件包裹从立陶宛寄往英国和波兰，其中两件在英国的仓库和莱比锡机场着火 俄罗斯向英国发送燃烧包裹的爆炸阴谋内部 贾尔斯补充道：“就他们造成大规模伤亡的意愿而言，这是一个明显的高水平。”
It was a step so serious, the White House contacted the Kremlin to tell it to stop.
这是一个非常严重的举动，白宫联系了克里姆林宫，要求其停止。
Russia had probed and found the limit. But the attacks have continued.
俄罗斯已经探索并找到了极限。 但袭击仍在继续。
German media on Friday quoted a federal police report that lists more than 165 suspected sabotage cases nationwide this year, though they don't say who is responsible.
德国媒体周五援引联邦警方的一份报告，列出了今年全国范围内发生的超过 165 起疑似破坏案件，不过他们没有说明责任人是谁。
Reports from Germany suggest the men who loaded and launched the drones at Leipzig's airport were Russian, and at least one may have entered the country specially for this job.
来自德国的报道显示，在莱比锡机场装载和发射无人机的人是俄罗斯人，至少有一名可能是专门为了这项工作而进入该国的。
The vast majority of sabotage attacks in Europe have been carried out by Russian proxies: its so-called "gig economy saboteurs".
欧洲绝大多数的破坏袭击都是由俄罗斯代理人实施的：即所谓的“零工经济破坏者”。
They are usually Russian-speakers from former Soviet states, recruited online and driven by the cash, not political conviction.
他们通常是来自前苏联国家的讲俄语的人，在网上招募，受金钱驱动，而不是政治信念。
In one case the BBC reported from Poland, the saboteurs-for-hire had previously fought for Ukraine as volunteers. The "handlers" are generally thought to remain in Russia, co-ordinating operations online.
英国广播公司 (BBC) 从波兰报道的一起案件中，这些雇佣破坏分子此前曾作为志愿者为乌克兰而战。 人们普遍认为，这些“处理者”仍留在俄罗斯，协调网上行动。
The IISS likened the proxies they used to kamikaze drones: cheap and easy to launch in large numbers, but disposable.
IISS 将他们使用的代理比作神风特攻队无人机：便宜且易于大量发射，但一次性。
The amateurs can be sloppy or reckless, though.
不过，业余爱好者可能会马虎或鲁莽。
In the parcel plot, one man failed to find a pick-up point and the whole mission had to be aborted.
在包裹地块中，一名男子未能找到接送点，整个任务不得不中止。
So if Moscow did send professionals for the Leipzig drone launch, it suggests it wanted precision - and success. In fact, the devices appear to have malfunctioned.
因此，如果莫斯科确实派遣专业人员参加莱比锡无人机发射，则表明它想要精确性和成功。 事实上，这些设备似乎出现了故障。
Russia's sabotage operations seem to come from the Cold War playbook. Daniela Richterova's research shows very similar targets on Soviet sabotage lists, and agents-saboteurs were used in much the same way.
俄罗斯的破坏行动似乎来自冷战剧本。 丹妮拉·里奇特洛娃（Daniela Richterova）的研究表明，苏联破坏名单上的目标非常相似，而且特工破坏者的使用方式也大致相同。
The idea, she says, was to have small, deniable attacks in peace-time that would escalate in times of war.
她说，这个想法是在和平时期发动小规模、可否认的袭击，而在战争时期会升级。
"I think we are still in the grey zone between the two, but the kind of attacks we've seen in the past weeks shrink that zone," she says.
“我认为我们仍然处于两者之间的灰色地带，但过去几周我们看到的那种攻击缩小了这个区域，”她说。
"And I think that increases the risk of what happens next."
“我认为这会增加接下来发生的事情的风险。”
As Nato scrambles to respond, questions like how many small, individual attacks add up to a sustained Russian assault - and demand action - remain unanswered.
在北约忙于做出回应之际，诸如多少次小型个人袭击加起来构成俄罗斯的持续攻击以及要求采取行动等问题仍然没有答案。
Perhaps riskier than all is the potential for escalation by accident.
也许最危险的是意外升级的可能性。
What if the exploding parcel had gone off mid-air and caused a crash?
如果爆炸的包裹在半空中爆炸并导致坠机怎么办？
What if the Leipzig drone had brought down a plane? "I think it could result in a big attack," Richterova says.
如果莱比锡无人机击落了一架飞机怎么办？ “我认为这可能会导致大规模攻击，”里奇特洛娃说。
"Then Nato, in this heightened security environment, would not be able to ignore that, and have to react."
“那么，在这种高度安全的环境下，北约将无法忽视这一点，并且必须做出反应。”
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