Could changing the pension triple lock pay for Burnham's big social care plan?
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In his Labour conference speech, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he would "adjust" the triple lock on the state pension to help pay for a new "national care service" in England from 2030.
在他的工党大会讲话中，总理安迪伯纳姆表示，他将"调整"国家养老金的三重锁定，以帮助支付英格兰从2030开始的新"国家护理服务"。
While his proposed reform is likely to reduce public spending on pensions, analysts say it would be unlikely to save enough money between 2030 and 2040 to pay for comprehensive social care reform.
虽然他提出的改革可能会减少养老金的公共支出，但分析人士表示，在2030和2040之间不太可能节省足够的资金来支付全面的社会护理改革。
BBC Verify has looked at the key figures.
BBC Verify已经查看了关键数字。
Since it was introduced by the coalition government in 2011, the triple lock has guaranteed that the UK state pension rises each year in line with whichever is the highest of inflation, average wages, or 2.5%.
自2011年联合政府推出以来，三重锁保证英国国家养老金每年的上涨与通货膨胀率、平均工资或2.5%的最高水平一致。
Burnham said that from April 2030, instead, it would only rise in line with the highest of inflation or 2.5%.
伯纳姆表示，从2030年4月开始，它只会随着通货膨胀的最高点或2.5％而上升。
The prime minister added that "it will hold its value relative to earnings over time".
总理补充说，"随着时间的推移，它将保持其相对于收益的价值"。
We are still awaiting full details from the government, but the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank, external says the new proposed system would ensure that the state pension rises by whichever is highest of: average earnings over time rather than every year The IFS says the key change is that the state pension will not automatically jump up with average wage increases every year, but only broadly track them over a longer period of time.
我们仍在等待政府的全部细节，但财政研究所（Ifs）智库外部表示，新的拟议制度将确保国家养老金以最高者的价格上涨。: 平均收入随着时间的推移而不是每年 IFS表示，关键的变化是国家养老金不会随着平均工资每年的增加而自动上升，但只有在更长的时间内广泛跟踪它们。
That is important because in some years the triple lock has meant the state pension has risen faster than earnings.
这一点很重要，因为在某些年份，三重锁定意味着国家养老金的增长速度快于收入。
"The removal of this permanent ratchet is to be welcomed and marks a substantial step towards a more sustainable and predictable state pension system," the IFS says.
IFS表示："消除这种永久性棘轮是值得欢迎的，标志着朝着更可持续和可预测的国家养老金体系迈出了重要一步。"
The IFS estimates that the present triple lock will increase annual state pension expenditure by £16bn a year by 2026–27, compared with if it had risen in line with average earnings growth since 2011.
IFS估计，目前的三重锁定将使2026-27年度国家养老金支出每年增加160亿英镑，相比之下，如果它与2011年以来的平均收入增长保持一致。
It says that if the new lock had been in place instead, spending would be £9bn a year lower than it currently is.
它说，如果新锁已经到位，每年的支出将比目前低90亿英镑。
There is considerable uncertainty about future savings though because the cost of the triple lock is linked to the future volatility of people's earnings and inflation, which are impossible to confidently forecast.
虽然未来储蓄存在相当大的不确定性，因为三重锁的成本与人们收入和通货膨胀的未来波动有关，这是不可能自信地预测的。
Burnham vows to end existing pension triple lock in 2030 to help fund care Faisal Islam: Triple lock move is significant, but it's a gamble Andy Burnham wants to fix social care - what are the options?
Burnham发誓要结束现有养恤金的三倍锁在2030年以帮助基金在乎 费萨尔伊斯兰:三重锁移动是显着,但它是一场赌博 安迪伯纳姆想要解决社会关怀-有什么选择？
What is the triple lock and why are people talking about it?
什么是三重锁，为什么人们在谈论它？
Moreover, analysts think it could take more than a decade for the reform to deliver major savings.
此外，分析人士认为，这项改革可能需要十多年的时间才能实现重大节约。
Earlier this year, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - the government's official forecaster - analysed how much , externalshifting to just an earnings-linked state pension in 2030 would cost relative to keeping the triple lock.
今年早些时候，预算责任办公室（OBR）-政府的官方预测者-分析了与保持三重锁定相比，2030将外部转移到收入挂钩的国家养老金的成本。
This is similar to what Burnham is proposing.
这与Burnham提出的类似。
The OBR did not identify any significant savings for the government from such a shift until 2034.
OBR在2034年之前没有发现政府从这种转变中节省了任何重大费用。
And by 2040 the annual saving was estimated by the OBR to be 0.2% of GDP, equivalent to £6bn a year in today's money.
到2040年，OBR估计每年的储蓄为GDP的0.2％，相当于今天的钱每年60亿英镑。
Downing Street has said the planned change will save £15bn a year by the end of the 2030s, but did not provide detail on how it reached that figure.
唐宁街表示，到21世纪30年代末，这项计划的变化将每年节省150亿英镑，但没有提供有关如何达到这一数字的详细信息。
Different social care reforms come with different price tags.
不同的社会护理改革有不同的价格标签。
The Health Foundation think tank has estimated that imposing a lifetime cap on an individual's care costs of around £86,000 in England, as proposed by the official report for the coalition government by Andrew Dilnot in 2011, would cost the government around £4bn a year.
健康基金会智库（Health Foundation think tank）估计，根据安德鲁*迪尔诺（Andrew Dilnot）在2011年为联合政府提交的官方报告的建议，在英格兰对个人的护理费用施加终身上限约为£86,000，
The think tank estimates that introducing a Scotland-style system of "free personal care" - which does not include accommodation, food and everyday living costs - would amount to around £7.5bn a year.
智库估计，引入苏格兰式的"免费个人护理"系统-不包括住宿，食物和日常生活费用-每年将达到约75亿英镑。
And the cost of creating a universal and comprehensive social care system , externalin England would be around £18.5bn a year extra by 2036.
而创建一个普遍和全面的社会关怀系统的成本，externalin英格兰将在18.5每年额外增加2036亿英镑左右。
The government has not set out the full details of how the "national care system" will work, but has clarified that while an individual's direct care costs would be covered, their accommodation costs in a residential or nursing home would not be.
政府没有列出"国家护理系统"将如何运作的全部细节，但澄清说，虽然个人的直接护理费用将被支付，但他们在住宿或养老院的住宿费用将不会。
Nevertheless, if it implemented a universal and comprehensive social care system then the expected revenues from the proposed reform could fall short.
然而，如果它实施一个普遍和全面的社会照顾制度，那么拟议改革的预期收入可能会不足。
Jonathan Cribb of the IFS said the pension reform "will not be the answer to funding universal social care".
Ifs的Jonathan Cribb表示，养老金改革"不会成为资助普遍社会关怀的答案"。
This could put pressure on a future government to raise revenues from other sources - either from tax rises or spending cuts elsewhere - to pay for a comprehensive social care service in England.
这可能会给未来的政府带来压力，要求他们从其他来源增加收入-无论是来自税收上涨还是其他地方的支出削减-以支付英格兰的全面社会护理服务。
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