Can diplomacy stop another Ethiopia-Eritrea war?
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Ethiopia has installed a new administration in conflict-hit Tigray after federal forces pushed back Tigrayan fighters. But tensions with Eritrea continue to raise fears of a wider regional war.
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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has announced an interim government in the country's northern Tigray region, giving it six months to prepare for regional elections and restore stability.
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Abiy's announcement on Friday followed a military offensive launched in September by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and six other armed groups. They were ultimately forced to retreat and lost control of the region.
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"To attain the peace that has long eluded them, to secure their right to self-administration, and to finally enjoy the fruits of development — which have been out of reach for many years — the people of Tigray must break free from this cycle of conflict," Abiy said in a statement posted on X.
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Shishay Amare, the new mayor of the regional capital Mekelle, said they would "create the right conditions for elections by ensuring peace and stability across Tigray," as reported by French news agency Agence France-Presse.
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"I am confident that this will be done within six months, according to our plan," Amare said, adding that their priorities included restoring peace, helping displaced residents return home, reopening markets and ensuring humanitarian assistance reached those in need.
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The fighting has revived concerns about a return to the devastating 2020–2022 Tigray war. Around 1 million people remain displaced from that conflict. The African Union has estimated that the war resulted in around 600,000 deaths from combat, famine and the collapse of healthcare.
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The new administration faces unresolved disputes over political authority and territory, including western Tigray, which is claimed by both Tigray and neighboring Amhara state.
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Ethiopia and Eritrea were once bitter enemies but signed a peace agreement in 2018. Eritrean forces later fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops during the Tigray war. But the countries' relationship has since deteriorated.
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Addis Ababa has accused Asmara of supporting Tigrayan forces and violating Ethiopian territory. Eritrea has denied the accusations.
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Reports of Eritrean troop movements near the border have heightened concern, although the extent of any current deployment remains disputed.
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Tsedale Lemma, journalist and publisher of the prominent Addis Standard magazine, told DW earlier this month that the danger reflects years of unresolved tensions and failures to implement the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the Tigray war.
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Lemma said the international community was "absolutely underestimating" the threat of conflict. She argued that international actors had failed to ensure effective monitoring of the agreement and respond adequately as the peace process weakened.
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The confrontation comes amid instability across the Horn of Africa, including Sudan's war and tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile mega-dam project.
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To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in September 2025, a move that was not well received by neighboring Egypt and Sudan, both downstream countries.
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Competition over access to the Red Sea has added another strategic dimension: Ethiopia became landlocked when Eritrea gained independence in 1993.
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Journalist Martin Plaut, who specializes in the Horn of Africa, has warned that the region is at a crossroads.
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He has raised the possibility of Ethiopian forces entering Eritrea, but an invasion remains a scenario, not a confirmed decision by the Ethiopian government. Any wider conflict could threaten regional trade and maritime security.
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The Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait connect shipping routes between Europe and Asia, making the region strategically important well beyond Africa. The United States and the United Kingdom have called on Ethiopia and Eritrea to exercise restraint and return to dialogue under their 2018 peace framework.
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Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the military buildup on the Ethiopia-Eritrea border could escalate into a wider conflict.
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Rubio said Washington hoped lifting some sanctions would improve communication with both sides and stressed the need for a "wise and measured" response to avoid a broader regional war.
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The United Kingdom has also called for renewed talks between both sides.
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"We urgently call for de-escalation and a return to dialogue. We reiterate our support for the African Union's role in facilitating this," said a UK government spokesperson in a statement on October 15. For now, the recapture of towns in Tigray has changed the military balance but has not resolved tensions in the region.
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Whether international pressure can prevent a wider war will depend on whether the governments involved choose dialogue over further escalation.
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Negash Mohammed, Tamirat Geleta and Christine Mhundwa contributed to this report.
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